Progress sits inside F3's severe cold climate band, and steel rollers that have gone dry over the years don't fail gently in that kind of winter. The grease inside the roller bearing stiffens in the cold, the steel contracts slightly, and a roller that was merely noisy in October can seize or crack outright on a sub-freezing morning - usually the first time you try to open the door after a cold snap.
With most of Progress's 4,649 households sitting in that same 1960-era hardware window, this isn't a one-off problem on one house. It's a pattern tied to the age of the housing stock itself: the steel roller and track combination that was fine in 1960 is now sixty-plus years into a service life that nylon rollers and better track lubrication were built to avoid. The fix isn't exotic - it's swapping worn steel for nylon and checking the track it rides in - but doing it before a cold morning forces the issue is cheaper than doing it after.